[1]邵猷根,陈运平,钟成林.基于系统动力学的区域生态承载力的政策仿真方案设计——以江西省为例[J].金融教育研究,2020,(01):34-4.
　SHAO Yougen,CHEN Yunping,ZHONG Chenglin.Design of Policy Simulation Scheme for Regional Ecological Carrying Capacity based on System Dynamics--Taking Jiangxi Province as an Example[J].,2020,(01):34-4.
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基于系统动力学的区域生态承载力的政策仿真方案设计——以江西省为例()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年01期
页码:
34-4
栏目:
经济观察:绿色经济研究
出版日期:
2020-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Design of Policy Simulation Scheme for Regional Ecological Carrying Capacity based on System Dynamics--Taking Jiangxi Province as an Example
文章编号:
2095-0098(2020)01-0034-11
作者:
邵猷根;  陈运平;  钟成林
江西师范大学,江西 南昌 330022
Author(s):
SHAO Yougen;  CHEN Yunping;  ZHONG Chenglin
Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330022,China
关键词:
生态承载力;  承载空间;  政策仿真
Keywords:
ecological carrying capacity;  carrier space;  policy simulation
分类号:
C94
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
提升生态承载力是区域可持续发展的重要保障。在对区域生态承载力系统动力学模型的边界进行清晰界定的基础上,选取区域生态承载力模型的主要监测变量,构建区域生态承载力的系统动力学模型。并以2005-2030年为系统仿真区间,以工业污水处理率、第一产业产值增长率、技术进步等22个政策干预点,设计了污染治理加强模式、产业结构优化模式、节约用水与技术进步模式、综合发展模式等4种提高区域生态承载力的政策仿真模式,对江西省的区域生态承载力进行政策仿真,仿真的结果表明:(1)若按现有的情况发展下去,江西省将会在2022年达到生态承载力容纳量的上限,承载人口约为47934700万人,承载经济规模为46806.2亿元;(2)若采用综合发展模式,在综合发展模式下,江西省在2027(推迟5年)年才会达到生态承载力容纳量的上限,此时,可承载经济规模为86381.6亿元,可承载人口49502500人,相对于现状模拟模式分别提升了84.55%和3.27%。
Abstract:
Improving ecological carrying capacity is an important guarantee for regional sustainable development.Based on the clear definition of the boundary of the regional ecological carrying capacity system dynamics model,the main monitoring variables of the regional ecological carrying capacity model were selected and the system dynamics model of regional ecological carrying capacity was constructed.With 2005-2030 as the system simulation interval,22 policy intervention points such as industrial sewage treatment rate,primary industry output value growth rate and technological progress; four policy simulation models are designed to improve the regional ecological carrying capacity,including the model of pollution control strengthening,the model of industrial structure optimization,the model of water conservation and technological progress,and the model of comprehensive development.The policy simulation of regional ecological carrying capacity in Jiangxi province was carried out,and the simulation results show that:1.If the current situation continues,Jiangxi Province will in 2022,it will reach the upper limit of the capacity of ecological carrying capacity,with a carrying population of about 479.34 million and a carrying economy of 4680.62 billion Yuan; 2.If the comprehensive development model is adopted,under the comprehensive development model,Jiangxi Province is at 2027(postponed 5 In the year,the upper limit of the capacity of ecological carrying capacity will be reached.At this time,the economic scale of the bearable economy is 8,638.16 billion yuan,which can carry a population of 49502500 people,which is 84.55% and 3.27% higher than the current model.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-09-16
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(G041301); 江西省社会科学规划青年博士基金项目(17YJ09)
作者简介:陈运平(1971-),男,江西奉新人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为管理科学和区域经济。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-02-10