[1]薛琰洁a,b,顾光同a,等.我国农产品期货与现货价格波动关系实证研究——以郑州强麦期货和现货价格为例[J].金融教育研究,2019,(01):62-68.
　XUE Yanjiea,b,GU Guangtonga,et al.The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Agricultural Products Futures and Spot Price Fluctuation in China ——Taking Zhengzhou Qiangmai Futures and Spot Prices as Examples[J].,2019,(01):62-68.
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我国农产品期货与现货价格波动关系实证研究——以郑州强麦期货和现货价格为例()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
62-68
栏目:
金融论坛
出版日期:
2019-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Agricultural Products Futures and Spot Price Fluctuation in China ——Taking Zhengzhou Qiangmai Futures and Spot Prices as Examples
文章编号:
2095-0098(2019)01-0062-07
作者:
薛琰洁a; b;  顾光同a; b
浙江农林大学 a.经济管理学院; b.浙江省农民发展研究中心,浙江 临安 311300
Author(s):
XUE Yanjiea; b;  GU Guangtonga; b
a.School of Economics and Management,b.Zhejiang Farmers Development Research Center, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Lin'an,Zhejiang 311300,China
关键词:
郑州强麦;  期货价格;  现货价格;  价格发现功能
Keywords:
Zhengzhou Qiangmai;  futures prices;  spot price;  price discovery function
分类号:
F243
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
自20世纪90年代我国农产品期货市场建立以来,农产品期货价格与现货价格存在着严重波动,为促进农产品期货市场的完善,弄清造成农产品价格波动的直接原因,了解目前我国农产品期货市场价格发现功能的有效情况,以郑州期货交易所的强麦为例,选取2016年1月至2017年11月的日度相关数据,运用协整检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应进行实证分析。结果表明:在一定程度上,有效发挥了郑州强麦期货市场价格的发现功能,但这种发挥是不充分的,程度仍是不够的。为了促进农产品期货市场的发展,就要从完善期货交易品种与期货合约、市场参与主体、加快推广“保险+期货”创新模式等方面着手。
Abstract:
Since the establishment of China's agricultural futures market in the 1990s,agricultural product futures price and spot price have serious fluctuation.In order to promote the perfection of futures market of agricultural products,make clear the direct reason that causes fluctuation of agricultural product price,and the effective situation of price discovery function of agricultural product futures market in China at present; this paper takes Qiangmai of Zhengzhou futures exchange as an example,selects the data related to daily degree from January 2016 to November 2017,and makes an empirical analysis by using co-integration test,VAR model and impulse response.The results show that,to some extent,the discovery function of Zhengzhou Qiangmai futures market price is effectively played,but this play is not enough,the degree is still insufficient.Therefore,in order to promote the development of agricultural product futures market,it is necessary to improve the varieties of futures trading and futures contracts,and market participants,accelerate the promotion of “insurance + futures” innovation model and other aspects; so as to adjust the price of agricultural products and promote agricultural development.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-07-19
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790045); 浙江省大学生科技创新项目(2018R412019)
通讯作者:顾光同(1977-),男,云南宣威人,博士,副教授,研究方向为数量经济、政策分析。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-02-10