[1]赵先立.汇改、流动性和人民币实际汇率波动的实证研究[J].金融教育研究,2018,(03):12-22.
　ZHAO Xianli.The Empirical Study on the Exchange Rate Reform,Liquidity and the Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation of RMB[J].,2018,(03):12-22.
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汇改、流动性和人民币实际汇率波动的实证研究()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2018年03期
页码:
12-22
栏目:
金融理论探讨
出版日期:
2018-06-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Empirical Study on the Exchange Rate Reform,Liquidity and the Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation of RMB
文章编号:
2095-0098(2018)03-0012-11
作者:
赵先立
中国人民银行 兰州中心支行金融研究处,甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
ZHAO Xianli
Financial Research Office,Lanzhou Central Branch of the People's Bank of China,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000,China
关键词:
人民币;  实际汇率波动;  汇率形成机制改革;  流动性;  巴萨效应
Keywords:
RMB;  real exchange rate fluctuation;  exchange rate formation mechanism reform;  liquidity;  B-S effect
分类号:
F830.92
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
文章在宏微观一致的分析框架下建立了一个实际汇率的决定模型,基于理论模型和国内外的现实进行扩展,实证检验了不同因素对人民币实际汇率的作用。结果表明,人民币汇率形成机制改革因素对人民币实际汇率波动具有最强的解释力,贸易条件和相对流动性次之,相对生产率由于BS效应在中国的传导渠道不畅通,因而对人民币实际汇率波动的解释力有限,净外部资产的解释力最弱,仅能引起人民币实际汇率小幅波动。结论认为,目前人民币不适合过度自由的浮动弹性,应继续渐进放开弹性以保持实际汇率相对稳定,货币政策、产业结构优化政策都可以成为调节人民币实际汇率的手段。
Abstract:
The paper established a model of real exchange rate decision under the macro and micro consistent analytical framework.Based on theoretical model and realities at home and abroad to expand,the paper made an empirical test about the different factors impacting on the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation.The results show that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform had the strongest explanatory power for the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation; trade conditions and relative liquidity are secondary; relative productivity has limited explanatory power on the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMBbecause the channel of B-S effect was not smooth in China; net foreign assets had the weakest explanatory power and it can only cause a slight fluctuation in the real exchange rate of RMB.The conclusion is that,at present,the RMB is not suitable for excessive freefloating elasticity,it should continue to loosen the elasticity to keep the real exchange rate relatively stable; themonetary policy and industrial structure optimization policy can become a means of real exchange rate adjustment.

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相似文献/References:

[1]张中锦.人民币汇率形成机制:制度安排与市场化[J].金融教育研究,2012,(01):11.
　ZHANG Zhongjin.Formation Mechanism of RMB Exchange Rate：Institutional Arrangement and Marketization[J].,2012,(03):11.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-04-11
作者简介:赵先立(1985-),男,山东烟台人,博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向为国际金融学。
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-06-20