[1]梅 波,陈星儒.高质量发展下企业债务多维保障动态测算与评价——兼论债务保障波动性和行业差异[J].金融教育研究,2023,(04):3-15.
　MEI Bo,CHEN Xingru.Dynamic Measurement and Evaluation of Enterprise Debt Multidimensional Guarantee under High Quality Development——Also on the Volatility and Industrial Differences of Debt Guarantee[J].,2023,(04):3-15.
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高质量发展下企业债务多维保障动态测算与评价——兼论债务保障波动性和行业差异()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2023年04期
页码:
3-15
栏目:
经济观察
出版日期:
2023-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Dynamic Measurement and Evaluation of Enterprise Debt Multidimensional Guarantee under High Quality Development——Also on the Volatility and Industrial Differences of Debt Guarantee
文章编号:
2095-0098(2023)04-0003-13
作者:
梅 波1; 2; 3;  陈星儒1
(1.重庆交通大学 经济与管理学院,重庆 400074; 2.重庆工商大学 会计学院,重庆 400067; 3.南京大学 会计与财务研究院,南京 210093)
Author(s):
MEI Bo1; 2; 3;  CHEN Xingru1
(1.School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing,400074,China; 2.School of Accounting,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing,400067,China; 3.Research Institute of Accounting and Finance,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210093,China)
关键词:
债务保障;  多维特性;  动态评价;  波动性;  智能算法
Keywords:
Debt guarantee;  Multidimensional characteristics;  Dynamic evaluation;  Volatility;  Intelligent algorithm
分类号:
F275; F272
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
企业债务保障事关企业发展安全以及高质量发展,厘清企业债务保障多维特性及动态性具有重要性。基于“债务多维特征—安全保障—高质量发展”路径,结合宏观经济年度变化,紧扣企业债务保障特征构建“价值引领-资产优化-盈利驱动-现金为王-利息调节”的多维保障指标体系,分别采用熵值法、变异系数法和相关系数法计算客观权重,利用遗传算法测算最优组合权重,构建时间权重的动态激励模型,探索债务保障综合评价,对2000—2020年企业债务多维保障进行静态、动态测算。主要发现:企业债务保障水平随时间产生波动,与静态评价相比,大样本和案例分析发现动态综合评价优势明显,更能科学合理评价债务综合保障; 测算细化债务保障等级和发展趋势,债务保障水平低企业,其多维细化保障水平也较低,需强化系统理念提升债务保障综合水平; 债务保障水平高企业,多数呈现波动性,需重点监测尾部企业现金流等债务保障指标; 住宿和餐饮业等行业债务保障相对较低,信息技术、制造业等行业债务保障相对较高,需分类优化资产、强化收益现金等债务保障促进高质量发展。
Abstract:
Corporate debt guarantee concerns the security and high-quality development of enterprises.It is important to clarify the multidimensional characteristics and dynamics of corporate debt guarantee.Based on the path of “multi-dimensional characteristics of debt-security guarantee-high-quality development”,combined with the annual changes of the macro-economy,the multi-dimensional guarantee index system of “value leading-asset optimization-profit driving-cash as king -interest adjustment” is constructed by closely following the characteristics of enterprise debt guarantee.Entropy method,variation coefficient method and correlation coefficient method are respectively used to calculate the objective weight,and genetic algorithm is used to calculate the optimal combination weight.We build a dynamic incentive model with time weight,explore the comprehensive evaluation of debt guarantee,and conduct static and dynamic calculation on the multidimensional guarantee of corporate debt from 2000 to 2020.The main findings are as follows:the level of corporate debt guarantee fluctuates over time.Compared with the static evaluation,large samples and case studies show that the dynamic comprehensive evaluation has obvious advantages,and the comprehensive debt guarantee is evaluated more scientifically and reasonably.According to the calculation of the level and development trend of detailed debt guarantee,enterprises with a low level of debt guarantee also have a low level of multi-dimensional detailed debt guarantee,so it is necessary to strengthen the system concept to improve the comprehensive level of debt guarantee; enterprises with high debt security level,most of which are volatile,need to focus on monitoring debt security indicators such as cash flow of tail enterprises.The debt guarantee of industries such as accommodation and catering industry is relatively low,while the debt guarantee of industries such as information technology and manufacturing industry is relatively high; it is necessary to optimize assets by classification and strengthen the debt guarantee of income cash to promote high-quality development.Characteristic research on dynamic comprehensive evaluation of multidimensional debt guarantee conforms to the requirements of important national documents and the spirit of the conference.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-02-16
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“大数据时代企业债务风险动态预警与安全保障机制研究”(18BJY004)
作者简介:梅波(1980—),男,重庆长寿人,博士,教授,研究方向为宏观经济与金融理论、债务管理与数据分析。
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-07-25