[1]徐伟呈,李欣鹏.人民币国际化背景下就业和就业结构的影响因素研究——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据[J].金融教育研究,2020,(01):3-16.
　XU Weicheng,LI Xinpeng.Research on the Influence Factors of Employment and Employment Structure under the Background of RMB Internationalization--Empirical Evidence from Provincial Panel Data of China[J].,2020,(01):3-16.
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人民币国际化背景下就业和就业结构的影响因素研究——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年01期
页码:
3-16
栏目:
本期特稿
出版日期:
2020-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on the Influence Factors of Employment and Employment Structure under the Background of RMB Internationalization--Empirical Evidence from Provincial Panel Data of China
文章编号:
2095-0098(2020)01-0003-14
作者:
徐伟呈1; 2;  李欣鹏3
1.中国海洋大学 经济学院,山东 青岛 266100; 2.中国海洋大学 海洋发展研究院,山东 青岛 266100; 3.山东大学 金融研究院,山东 济南 250100
Author(s):
XU Weicheng1; 2;  LI Xinpeng3
1.School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China; 2.Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China; 3.Institute for Financial Studies,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250100,China
关键词:
人民币国际化;  人民币汇率;  利率;  就业;  就业结构
Keywords:
RMB internationalization;  RMB exchange rate;  interest rate;  employment;  employment structure
分类号:
F061.1
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过将跨境贸易人民币结算比重指标引入到劳动力市场动态均衡模型中,推导出人民币国际化背景下影响就业的主要因素,并利用2000-2017年全国31个地区的面板数据考察了各因素对就业和就业结构的影响。研究表明:汇率对就业和就业结构的影响最显著,其次是利率,国际原油价格的作用则相对较弱,但在跨境贸易人民币结算实行之后,各因素的影响作用均变小。具体而言,人民币升值可能增强外贸企业面临的汇率风险,不利于我国的就业增长,亦不利于贸易与非贸易部门就业结构及就业技能结构的改善。利率市场化改革能在一定程度上推进跨境贸易人民币结算的实行,在短期,利率上升会通过汇率传导机制拉动就业增长和第二产业就业比重提升; 但在长期,其下降有利于就业技能结构的改善。此外,以人民币计价的中国原油期货挂盘交易能降低原油价格波动对就业的影响,但短期油价上涨仍会对就业和就业结构产生较显著的负向影响。
Abstract:
Through introducing the index of ratio of RMB settlement of cross-border trade to the dynamic equilibrium model of labor market,this paper deduces the main factors affecting employment,and uses panel data of 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2017 to carry out research on the effect of the main factors on employment and employment structure.The results show that:exchange rate has the most significant influence on employment and employment structure,followed by interest rate,and the effect of international crude oil price is relatively weak.However,after the implementation of RMB settlement of cross-border trade,the influence of all factors has become smaller.Specifically,RMB appreciation may enhance the exchange rate risks faced by foreign trade enterprises,which is not conducive to employment growth,but also not conducive to improvement of the employment structure of trade to non-trade sector as well as the employment skill structure.The reform of interest rate marketization can promote the RMB settlement of cross-border trade to a certain extent.In the short term,interest rate rise will lead to employment growth and increase the share of secondary employment through exchange rate transmission mechanism,but in the long run,the decline is conducive to improving the structure of employment skills.In addition,yuan-denominated Chinese crude oil futures trading can reduce the impact of crude oil price volatility on employment,but oil price increases in the short-term will still have a more significant negative impact on employment and employment structure.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-09-11
基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目“人民币国际化视角下我国汇率对就业和工资影响的机理、量化与预测研究”(18CJY008)
作者简介:徐伟呈(1984-),女,山东济南人,博士,副教授,研究方向为国际金融、世界经济。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-02-10