[1]许嘉扬.有效汇率、贸易顺差与跨境资本流动的动态关系研究——基于国际收支平衡表的时间序列分析[J].金融教育研究,2015,(03):16-22.
 XU Jiayang.Research on the Dynamic Relationship among the Effective Exchange Rate,Surplus in Trade and Cross-border Capital Flows---Time Series Analysis based on the Balance of International Payments[J].,2015,(03):16-22.
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有效汇率、贸易顺差与跨境资本流动的动态关系研究——基于国际收支平衡表的时间序列分析()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2015年03期
页码:
16-22
栏目:
出版日期:
2015-05-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on the Dynamic Relationship among the Effective Exchange Rate,Surplus in Trade and Cross-border Capital Flows---Time Series Analysis based on the Balance of International Payments
作者:
许嘉扬;
浙江金融职业学院,浙江 杭州,310018
Author(s):
XU Jiayang
关键词:
有效汇率贸易顺差跨境资本流动动态关系
Keywords:
effective exchange rate surplus in trade cross-border capital flows dynamic relationship
分类号:
F832
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
文章采用1988年1季度到2014年2季度的国际收支平衡表数据,通过建立VAR模型分析了名义有效汇率、货物贸易顺差与跨境资本流动之间的相互关系。研究结果表明:(1)三者之间存在着一种非对称的互动关系;(2)"货物贸易顺差→名义实际汇率→跨境资本流动→货物贸易顺差"之间形成了自我循环机制,而这一自我循环机制的关键是"货物贸易顺差←→跨境资本流动"互为因果且相互加强的关系;(3)中国双顺差现象是一个结构性问题,并与该自我循环机制密切相关。
Abstract:
Based on the data of balance of international payments from the first-quarter of 1988 to the second-quarter of 2014,the present paper analyzed the relationship among the nominal effective exchange rate,surplus in commodity trade and cross-border capital flows by building the VAR model. Research results showed that:( 1 ) there’s an asymmetric interaction-relationship among them;(2)“surplus in commodity trade→the nominal effec-tive exchange rate→cross-border capital flows→surplus in commodity trade”formed a self-circle mechanism, and the key of this self-circle mechanism was the reciprocal causation and mutually reinforcing relationship be-tween surplus in commodity trade and cross-border capital flows;(3)the phenomenon of China’s double favorable balance was an structural problem,and closely associated with the self-loop mechanism.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(13NDJC30YBM); 浙江金融职业学院省级优势专业(金融专业)研究成果
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01