[1]赵先立,何砚.人民币汇率均衡水平的实证估算[J].金融教育研究,2013,(02):20-26.
 ZHAO Xianli,HE Yan.Empirical Estimates of the RMB Exchange Rate Equilibrium Level[J].,2013,(02):20-26.
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人民币汇率均衡水平的实证估算()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2013年02期
页码:
20-26
栏目:
出版日期:
2013-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Empirical Estimates of the RMB Exchange Rate Equilibrium Level
作者:
赵先立;何砚;
中央财经大学金融学院,北京,100081
Author(s):
ZHAO Xianli; HE Yan
关键词:
人民币汇率货币分析模型均衡实际汇率汇率失调
Keywords:
RMB exchange rate monetary analysis model equilibrium real exchange rate exchange rate misalignment
分类号:
F830.73
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
国外关于人民币均衡汇率的研究基本认为,2008年之前人民币存在大幅低估,国内研究则认为低估程度有限。但在2008年之后,国内外研究者对于人民币汇率是否需要进一步大幅升值却存在很大的争议。本文在货币分析框架下建立了均衡汇率的决定模型,确定了决定均衡汇率的因素为国内外相对货币供给量、相对国民收入和相对利率。基于理论模型,选取了1994年1季度至2012年2季度的数据进行实证检验,测算了人民币均衡汇率和失调幅度。结果表明,人民币汇率水平在样本期内呈现高估和低估交替,且具有一定的修复调节机制,总体未显著偏离均衡水平,不存在大幅低估。因此,我国应继续坚持"自主性"的人民币汇率形成机制改革。
Abstract:
The Foreign researches about equilibrium exchange rate of RMB considered that RMB was substantially underestimated before 2008,and domestic researches considered that the extent of underestimated was limited.But after 2008,there was great controversy on RMB exchange rate whether need to further sharp appreciation between domestic and foreign researchers.In this paper,we established an equilibrium real exchange rate model base on the monetry analysis framework,The model shows that relative money supply,relative national income and relative interest rates between two countries are the determinants of equilibrium exchange rate.Based on theoretical models,we made an empirical test and estimated the equilibrium real exchange rate and misalignment by the data from 1994Q1 to 2012Q2.The results show that the level of the RMB exchange rate presented alternatively overestimated and underestimated during the sample period,and certain repair adjustment mechanism was existed.Meanwhile,RMB exchange rate did not significantly deviate from the equilibrium level overall and had no substantial underestimate.Therefore,China should maintain the “autonomy” of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform.

参考文献/References:

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01