[1]牟俊霖,王 阳.财政政策、货币政策对发达国家就业与经济增长的影响研究——基于随机系数的面板向量自回归模型的估计[J].金融教育研究,2017,(04):3-14.
　MOU Junlin,WANG Yang.Research the Effect of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Employment and Economic Growth in Developed Countries——Based on the Estimation from Random-Coefficient Vector Autoregression Model[J].,2017,(04):3-14.
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财政政策、货币政策对发达国家就业与经济增长的影响研究——基于随机系数的面板向量自回归模型的估计()
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《金融教育研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2017年04期
页码:
3-14
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-08-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research the Effect of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Employment and Economic Growth in Developed Countries——Based on the Estimation from Random-Coefficient Vector Autoregression Model
作者:
牟俊霖;  王 阳
1.首都经济贸易大学 劳动经济学院,北京 100070; 2.国家发展和改革委员会 社会发展研究所,北京 100077
Author(s):
MOU Junlin;  WANG Yang
1.Institute of Labor and Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China; 2.Institute for Social Development,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100077,China
关键词:
财政政策;  货币政策;  就业;  经济增长;  随机系数的面板向量自回归模型
Keywords:
fiscal policy;  monetary policy;  employment;  economic growth;  random-coefficient vector autoregression model
分类号:
F810.4
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
自2008年的金融危机以来,发达国家采取的经济刺激政策以超级宽松的货币政策为主,以适度宽松的财政政策为辅。这些政策能否帮助发达国家实现就业增长和经济复苏呢?本研究以24个发达国家的宏观季度数据为基础,采用随机系数的面板向量自回归模型的估计方法进行估计,结果表明:第一,增加政府消费的扩张性财政政策,能够有效地促进发达国家的就业与经济增长; 第二,增加货币供给的扩张性货币政策,能够有效地促进发达国家的经济增长,但是对发达国家的就业有非常不利的影响; 第三,虽然与凯恩斯主义、货币主义的理论预期不符,但符合客观事
Abstract:
From the Financial Crisis in 2008 till nowadays,can the economic stimulus dominated by super easing monetary policy with the supplement of proactive fiscal policy which has been applied by developed countries realize employment growth and economic recovery? Based on the quarterly macro data of 24 advanced countries and the estimation from random- coefficient vector autoregression model,it is found that:Firstly,the expansive fiscal policy of the increasing of government consumption will promote employment and economic growth of developed countries.Secondly,the expansive monetary policy of the increasing of money supply will promote economic growth,but impede employment growth of developed countries.Thirdly,different from the expectation of Keynesianism and Monetarism theory,the near zero interest rates harbored by many developed countries will impede employment growth and economic growth of developed countries.The policy enlightenment of this study is that fiscal policy,monetary policy have their own advantages in promoting employment and economic growth,therefore government should match expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy reasonably according to the controlling target of promoting employment and economic growth,and use the near zero interest rates of monetary policy carefully.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-03-28基金项目:国家社科基金青年项目(13CJY021)作者简介:牟俊霖(1979-),男,四川荣县人,博士,副教授,研究方向为就业与经济增长; 王 阳(1981-),女,北京人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为劳动力市场政策。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01